The Re-Emergence of Justin Morneau?

Photo Courtesy of Rob Tringali, Getty Images

Wednesday July 7, 2010.  A hot, muggy summer day.  Toronto was under an extreme heat alert.  The Minnesota Twins were in Toronto for a three game series with the Blue Jays.  After losing the first game 7-6 on Tuesday night, the Jays were looking to Marc Rzepcynski to even the set at a game a piece.  Minnesota countered with Kevin Slowey.  But despite Toronto coming away with the win that day, nobody really remembers that game for the box score. 

Canadian Justin Morneau was in the midst of possibly the best season of his MLB career.  In 81 games he had 102 hits, 25 doubles, 18 home runs (going into that game, he was just three behind Jose Bautista) and was hitting to the tune of a .345 average.  He was on pace to meet or surpass his season that won him MVP honours in 2006 (The first Canadian to win the AL MVP)
and had already been voted in as the starting first baseman for the AL All Star squad.  However on that day his stellar season (and career to that point) came to a screeching halt.

It was the eighth inning.  Minnesota was down by a run.  Michael Cuddyer was at the plate for the Twins with nobody out and Morneau at first base.  Cuddyer hit a ground ball to a back peddling Alex Gonzalez who quickly got the ball to McDonald to force Morneau at second.  Justin slid in hard to second.  As he should have.  As anyone would do in an attempt to break up the double play.  He was successful.  John McDonald jumped over Morneau to throw the ball to first and Cuddyer beat the off line throw easily.  However when McDonald jumped, Morneau was coming in so fast he slid through the bag at second.  His head hit McDonald's knee as McDonald was attempting to clear him.

Justin suffered a concussion that caused him to miss the rest of the 2010 regular season and the playoffs.  He returned in 2011 but was reduced to playing in only 69 games.  Over that span he batted just .227 with 4 home runs.  Well below his career numbers.  2012 and 2013 were marginally better.  In 2012 Justin was able to play 134 games, posting a .267 batting average and hitting double digit home runs (19) for the first time since that 2010 season.  2013 marked the last year of his contract with the Twins.  As a result Justin was dealt on August 31 to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Alex Presley and a player to be named later. (On October 5 that player was named as Duke Welker.)  The Pirates appeared to be playoff bound for the first time since 1992 and were looking to add a bat to help put them over the top.  After batting .259 in Minnesota with 17 home runs, Morneau unfortunately did not bring what the Pirates were hoping for.  He debuted in Pittsburgh on September 1, wearing number 66 and playing first base.  Through 77 at bats as a Pirate, Justin hit .260 with 4 doubles, 3 RBI's and no HR's.  I'm sure not what he or the Pirates were expecting.

Even though he was three and a half seasons removed.  Justin had never been able to get back to his pre concussion form.  Justin was granted free agency on Oct 31, 2013.

I've been a Justin Morneau fan since he broke into the league.  I have always followed him closely (as I tend to do with all of our Canadian born players) while he was a Twin and whenever he represented team Canada in the World Baseball Classic.  I have been rooting for him and hoping that he would at some point get back to where he used to be for one more season or two before his career is over.

I know it's early.  Heck, it's barely May.  But it appears that this year may finally be that year.

On December 1, 2013 Justin Morneau was signed by the Colorado Rockies to replace their long time first basemen Todd Helton, who retired at the end of the 2013 season after spending his entire career in Colarado.  The contract is a two year deal worth $11.75 million dollars and carries a mutual option worth $9 million for 2016.  Maybe it's the mountain air.  Maybe a change of scenery.  Maybe the National League.  Maybe batting between Troy Tulowitzky and Wilin Rosario. Who knows?  But whatever it is Justin seems to have found his stroke again.

As I said, it's early.  But through 30 games so far, Morneau is batting .339, with 6 HR's, 9 doubles, and 24 RBI's.  That would put him "on pace" for a 32 HR, 129RBI season if you believe in that sort of thing.  This appears to be the best stretch that he has put together since that day in July of 2010.

I am very hopeful that this is a sign of the year to come for Morneau.  That he is finally going to bounce back and put together a monster season that will put him back on top and have him back in the conversation amongst analysts when they discuss the year's top performers.  But more importantly, that he is finally healthy and feeling 100% again.  Enjoying both baseball and life to their fullest extents.

As of today Justin Morneau is the top performer among Canadian players in Major League Baseball this year.  Perhaps this might be the year Joey Votto (who I am also a big fan of) might have a threat to end his streak of Tip O'Neill awards.  The Tip O'Neill award is handed out annually by the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame to a Canadian Baseball player, or players who are "judged to have excelled in individual achievement and team contribution while adhering to the highest ideals of the game of baseball."  Morneau has won the award in before in 2006 and 2008.  Votto is the current Tip O'Neill award winner and has won the award for four straight years (although he and Jon Axford shared the award in 2011.  The third time the award has been awarded to co-winners).  How great would it be if both of these Canadian first basemen put together a good season and were neck and neck when it's time for the Canadian ball hall to choose its winner for 2014?

Oh, and by the way.  Watch out for those Rockies.  With a record of 19 and 13, they are currently one game out of first place in the NL West behind the Giants and half a game up on the World Series favorite Dodgers.  There are some good things happening out in Colorado this year.  They're definitely worth checking out if you're surfing around MLB.TV some day looking for a game to watch.

Keep an eye on Morneau.  I definitely will be.

 - Rob

Justin Morneau was born on May 15, 1981 in New Westminster, British Columbia.  He was drafted in the third round of the 1999 amateur draft by the Minnesota Twins.  He made his MLB debut with the Twins at age 22 on June 10, 2003 against coincidentally the Colorado Rockies.  Morneau went 2 for 4 from the clean up spot in his first game.

Jays and Royals Delayed

The rain has been falling in KC tonight, but we're still going to see a game.  Sportsnet 590 the fan is reporting that the Jays and Royals game will get underway at 8:35 ET.

Some good news from Buffalo tonight, Marcus Stroman pitched 6 innings of no hit ball.  Allowing one walk and striking out 10 on 80 pitches.  Apparently only one ball was hit out of the infield all night.

Why This Year Was The Best Shot For The Blue Jays.... & How They Blew It

If you're a Jays fan like I am, then you can answer the following question handily.  Where were you when you heard about the Florida Marlins trade?  Well?  Where were you?  You know exactly where you were.  As do I.  I was sitting in Pizza Hut having dinner with my family, when my phone started going absolutely bananas.  In a span of about ten minutes I was receiving non stop text messages, emails, BBM messages and even a phone call from friends asking if I'd heard about the deal.  What did I think?  Was this the deal that would put Toronto over the top?  Have the Blue Jays finally got a legitimate shot to contend for a play off spot in the American League East?

For the first time in many years this country was buzzing about baseball.  In November nonetheless.  Even the players were fired up.

Jose Bautista told Sportsnet's Shi Davidi: “My level of confidence as an athlete has just been quadrupled and I don’t say that lightly. I mean, it’s the honest truth”

Catcher JP Arencibia tweeted:  "Fired up this is really happening.. More fuel to the fire to be the best!! Also hearing about season ticket sales. Guess fans are ready too!"

Alex Anthopoulos was deemed a genius.  The wonderboy.

Then in December, he added R.A. Dickey.  In just two transactions AA had seemingly turned over three fifths of a starting rotation that won 73 games in 2012.

Then 2013 happened....  Josh Johnson (whom I never had faith in) was a short lived disaster.  Morrow was what we've accustomed to Morrow being in the Blue Jays rotation (absent).  Dickey and Buerhle both struggled in the first half, and to cap it off Happ was hit in the head by a line drive and was injured while falling from the impact.  Couple the starting rotation woes with Reyes getting injured opening day, Bautista, Rasmus and Lawrie all missing significant amounts of time and Melky having more serious health issues... Not to mention Arencibia being a minor media fiasco, talking and playing his way out of the organization.  (I'm still not sure that was the right move.) We arrive at the recipe for what happened last season.

Heading into last off season, Anthopoulos had some lofty goals to improve and solidify the Jays for the 2014 season.  Starting with the rotation. No pun intended.

On the day of the final game of the season last year Anthopoulos reasserted the organizations intentions of adding a front line pitcher either through trade of free agency.  Then, during a television broadcast, he acknowledged that the Blue Jays would be bidding for Masahiro Tanaka.

Anthopoulos also said the club planned to improve at second base, upgrade their "catching situation" and possibly look for a left fielder.

In December, with the winter meetings looming, the Blue Jays signed Dioner Navarro to be their starting catcher.

Prior to the winter meetings, Anthopoulos had his annual meeting with the Toronto chapter of the Baseball Writer's Association of America.    At which he told them that he was no longer optimistic he'd be able to upgrade his club's starting rotation via free agency.  He did tell them however, that he had targeted three starting pitchers he was attempting to acquire via trade.  "As the prices in free agency sit today, I'm not optimistic.  But that could change.  We're definitely having dialogue in trade.  I wouldn't say that we're necessarily close, but we're having active dialogue.  Where that leads to, I don't know yet." Even in December, the priority was still to upgrade the rotation.  With honorable mention going to bringing somebody in to compete with Ryan Goins for the second base job.

The rest of the off season came and went...  Nothing happened.  Well, unless you count Chris Getz as the guy competing with Goins for the second base job that is.

The most exciting day of the off season for me was the day that Sportsnet 590 the FAN sent out an email saying that the Jays had signed Ervin Santana to a one year deal worth $14 million.  However we all know now that this was a false report.

Ok, so now that we have reviewed the non happenings of this past off season, please pass me my soap box.

Alex Anthopoulos has completely contradicted himself this year.  Following the 2013 season Anthopoulos showed his cards when the Jays made the trade with the Marlins and acquired R.A. Dickey from the Mets in the span of a just a few weeks.  In doing so he had pushed his chips to the middle of the table and went all in.  Giving up significant prospects and bringing in veteran upgrades in an effort to be a contending team right now is something I will always get behind provided there are pieces already in place, which there were.  I supported him 100%.

Here is where we differed.  After the abysmal 2013 season, Alex said that they didn't just build this team for one year, they built it to be a contender for the span of 3 or 4 years.  Then he took a very passive aggressive approach to the 2014 off season.  I believe this was all wrong. 

Let me begin with the passive aggressive off season, and I will come back to the statement that the team was built to contend for not just one or two years.

This team needed starting pitching.  Period.  There were not enough guys to provide enough innings to get through this season.  I believe Drew Hutchison is going to be a great starting pitcher, but he JUST had Tommy John surgery.  How many innings can he really throw this year?  Brandon Morrow is in a similar situation.  The last time he threw more than 55 innings was in 2012 and he has only pitched over 150 innings one time in his entire major league career.  That leaves you with Dickey, Buerhle and..... Happ?  McGowan?  Romero?  Redmond?  Rogers?  Drabek (cough)?  Stroman?  What was the plan here?  Throw the pasta at the wall and hope that some of it sticks?  I know that Anthopoulos said that he was planning on adding starting pitching.  In fact if I remember correctly he originally said a front line starter as well as a second, back end rotation guy.  He did neither of these.  He says he had deals in place but he wasn't comfortable with the price.

Here's the thing.  Once you've gone all in you don't get to flip your cards back over and pull back your chips.  That luxury is gone.  I don't care if you're not comfortable with the price.  If you have the chance to bring in a starter that can help this rotation, you do it.  You can't claim that you don't want to mortgage the future, because you already have.  Alex traded significant farm hands last off season.  If Jeff Samardzija is the best that you can get and you have to give up Stroman and Sanchez to do it, then you do it.  No, Samardzija is not worth Stroman and Sanchez.  However if that is all you can get done then you get it done.  This team is not built to contend for years.  The majority of the impact players are not under contract after the 2015 season. (not including club options) Rasmus, Lind, Morrow and Melky are in the last year of their contracts.  Bautista, Encarnacion, Dickey and Buerhle are finished after next season.  Next season we are realistically looking at a starting outfield of Sierra, Anthony freakin Gose, and Bautista!  If that doesn't scare you a little it should.  After 2015 we could have no first basemen, no DH, we'll still have no second basemen and who knows what the rotation will look like?

If I haven't lost you yet and you're actually still reading this you are probably thinking:  "But Rob, aren't these reasons why you shouldn't trade Stroman and Sanchez?" NO!  They're prospects.  We can get prospects back!  As I said, you have significant guys coming off of their contracts.  So lets say that Anthopoulos actually finished what he started and stayed all in.  My definition of staying all in would have involved two things.  Number one you trade Sanchez and Stroman and bring someone in.  We'll use Samardzija because we already know he was on the table.  You add Samardzija and you give Ervin Santana the four year $50 million dollar deal he was looking for.  Never mind this crap where you thought you had a one year deal in place for $14 million but Santana backed out.  Of course he did Alex.  What pitcher in their right mind (a fly ball pitcher nonetheless) wanting a one year deal with the hopes of landing a lucrative multi-year deal afterward chooses a home run park in one of the traditionally toughest divisions in baseball?  NOBODY!  Of course he accepted the same deal from Atlanta.  What you should have done was just given him four years at 12.5 million per like Santana wanted.  I firmly believe that he would have taken this deal if offered from Toronto.  He didn't opt for Atlanta because he didn't want to play here.  He opted for Atlanta because it was a one year deal.  If Toronto had offered him the money he was looking for, he would have taken it.  Everyone knew what his price was.  I don't think he would have been overly picky about who gave it to him.  Especially with so many of his Dominican Republic comrades already playing in Toronto.

NOW Alex, you are all in.  Now you have Dickey, Buehrle, Santana, Samardzija and Morrow.  Morrow may have been replaced by Hutchison by now, if Hutch didn't win the spot outright in spring training.  You just solidified your rotation.  But not only have you solidified your rotation, you have also bolstered the bullpen by adding McGowan and either Morrow or Hutchison in long relief roles.

We already know this offense can hit.  Not only can they hit, they are healthy this year.  They scored 8 runs on 16 hits one day last week and lost.  As it stands, the Jays record is at 12 and 13 despite having lost 7 games in which they scored 4 or more runs.  Their rotation has not been good and their bullpen is already overworked.  If we had Samardzija and Santana in the starting rotation right now, I am willing to bet that the Jays would have won at least 4 of those 7 games.  Especially considering the leads that they obtained in those games before blowing them later on.  That would put us at 16 and 9. All hypothetical of course.

If Alex had stayed the course from last year and gotten these two deals done we would have officially mortgaged the farm.  But we also would have been legitimate contenders this season.  The rest of the division is not bulletproof.  The Yankees have holes. The Red Sox have holes.  The Rays have had significant injuries to their pitching staff, but no one could have seen that coming.  This is why I believe this year was the best shot for the Blue Jays.  The state of the division combined with the amount of players they are losing after this season and even more that could be free agents after 2015 reasserts to me that 2014 could have been the year of the Blue Jays.

Let's say that Anthopoulos had done these things and they worked out.  We made the playoffs, maybe even won the Pennant or the World Series.  If that had happened, no one would have minded that Stroman and Sanchez were gone.

If he had done these things and they hadn't worked out.  Say two or three of the starters got injured.  Maybe some of the offense was hurt and the team fell behind.  Then you still have assets.  Good, moveable assets that can bring you back more prospects.  Colby, Melky, Bautista and Encarnacion would get you good young pieces back.  Lind might bring something.  Dickey is probably moveable.  Buehrle might be to the right team at the deadline next year.  Had they signed Santana, I am confident that they could have moved him as well after year two of his contract.  You are never "screwed" as long as you have assets.  I believe that the Blue Jays are rich enough in assets that they could have completely mortgaged the farm, gone for it and if it didn't work out, still been able to re-mortgage the farm.  Remember, when Alex Anthopoulos first got to Toronto he took this organization's farm system from being down in the lower third of the league, to fourth.  It has been done before and it can be done again.

Instead Jays fans are stuck with the current situation.  They do not have enough pitching to get through this season, which is going to lead to an overworked bullpen and more frustrating losses.  But that is probably not where the frustration will end this season.  Lets face it, if Toronto is at .500 or below come the all star break, the fire sale is going to start...  Then where are we going to be next season?  I don't believe that the Blue Jays will pay Melky the money he is going to command at the end of this season.  I also don't believe that Rasmus is interested in re-signing after this year.  But I have been wrong before.

Fasten your seat belts folks... It's going to be a bumpy ride.

 - Rob

Prospects are made to be traded.  If you're interested in hearing more of my take on prospects, please read my previous post from December 2012 "Do Jays Fans Overvalue Prospects?"

Do Jays Fans Overvalue Prospects?

Well, we've all heard by now that the Blue Jays are apparently close to making a deal with the Mets for current NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey.

There haven't been many particulars of the trade that have leaked out, however the speculation (according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News) is that the Blue Jays are willing to include Gose and d'Arnaud in the deal.

Normally I would assume that because we have heard about this that there is probably no truth to it.  We all know that the "Silent Assassin" works in the shadows.  However, there are other reports suggesting the Jays have been reviewing Dickey's medical information since yesterday.  So maybe there is some bite to this one.  Hard to say at this point.

The general reaction that I've seen on twitter is that Jays fans are either extremely for, or avidly against acquiring Dickey.  There doesn't seem to be much middle ground.  The one point that does seem to keep re-occuring though, is that Jays fans do not want to give up Travis d'Arnaud.

This to me is astounding.

I've always been surprised at how attached Jays fans can tend to get to their prospects before ever having seen them play at the Major League level.  I'm not disputing that all signs point to d'Arnaud being a franchise player.  I am also not contesting that on paper Gose and d'Arnaud appear to be guys that could help your team for 10 plus years if you're able to retain them.  But we don't know that, and we won't know that for a few years to come.

Maybe its me.  Maybe I'm jaded when it comes to prospects because I still remember Eddie Zosky, Derek Bell and Howard Battle.  How they were going to be the next "franchise guy".  Not one of the three worked out.

But if I am jaded, as a Jays fan, I do have good reason to be.

I could sit here and post draft results to you.  Show you that a lot of first round picks, actually first overall picks even, that never saw the light of day in the major leagues.  I'm not going to do that though.  The draft is a long way away from the majors.  Instead, I took a look at some top 100 prospect lists from over the years.  This hit a little closer to home.

In February of this year Baseball America's top 100 prospects list has Travis d'Arnaud ranked at #17, and Anthony Gose at #39.  Both are very highly thought of players.  Those are are respectable rankings.  However the Jays have had this before.  Derek Bell was #15 on the list in 1992.  Eddie Zosky was #22, and Mark Whiten #25 in 1991.  If you're looking for a higher ranking, Jose Silva was #10 in 1994.  Not one of these four really even had a career in the majors.  

In 2000 Vernon Wells was #4, Alex Rios was #6 in 2004.  Both of these guys are everyday players sure, and they have had good seasons.  But could anyone really argue that they lived up to their potential and projections?  I don't think you could.  As much as I like the guy and feel for him as a player, Wells is about to become the highest paid bench player in history.

Other Jays players to crack the top 100 that you've probably heard of include:  D.J. Boston, Angel Martinez, Marty Janzen, Gabe Gross, Josh Phelps, Billy Koch, and Guillermo Quiroz to name a few. 

In 2006, the top 10 Blue Jays prospects heading into that season were as follows:

1.   Dustin McGowan (Who also cracked the 100 list twice at #36, and #18)
2.   Ricky Romero
3.   David Purcey
4.   Adam Lind
5.   Josh Banks
6.   Casey Janssen
7.   Brandon League
8.   Franciso Rosario
9.   Curtis Thigpen
10. Vince Perkins

Of that list, I think we have to acknowledge Romero, Lind, Janssen, and League as successes.  The other six, well, you can make your own decision.

There are two sides to every argument.  Obviously the Blue Jays have had prospects crack the top 100 that have panned out.  That list includes but is not limited to Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Alex Gonzales, Shannon Stewart, Roy Halladay, and Chris Carpenter.

Jays fans need to relax.  If the rumours are true and d'Arnaud and Gose are included in the deal, I can almost assure you there are more pieces coming back.  I suspect it will be another large Anthopoulos deal that includes 8 players or more before the final icing is on the cake.  Alex has been after Jonathan Niese from the Mets for a while.  You can bet that he's at least brought his name up in the discussions.

The only point I'm trying to make is that no matter how close they are to the majors and how much potential they have, prospects are just that.  Prospects.  R.A. Dickey is a commodity.  If a team is in a position to be a contender, I am always in favour of trading prospects for a commodity.  Prospects are replaceable.  Don't forget that Johnson's contract is up this year and Melky has two.  If the Jays aren't competing, they can deal guys like these for prospects at the deadline.  If the Jays are competing you probably won't miss d'Arnaud, Gose, or the players given up in the Marlins deal anyway. 

I believe that the best shot the Jays have to win with this team, is right now.  Especially with Josh Johnson only having one year left on his deal.  Veterans like Reyes, Beurhle, Encarnacion and Bautista, though under contract for a few more years, aren't getting any younger.  R.A. Dickey helps this team win, right now.  The acquisition of Dickey would give them a rotation (in no particular order) of Morrow, Johnson, Buerhle, Romero and Dickey.  Keeping J.A. Happ and any other pieces they acquire that could potentially start, in the bull pen.  Giving them lots of insurance against injuries.  After last year I think we all agree that you can never have enough pitching.

Whether the Dickey rumours are true or not, I think 2013 is going to be a great season.  I firmly believe that Alex will bring in another starting pitcher before opening day.  If it is Dickey, great.  If not, then maybe we get to keep Gose and d'Arnaud, and all this fuss was over nothing.

What should we the fans do in the meantime?  Sit back and enjoy the ride.  This is the busiest offseason we have experienced as Jays fans in a long time and the Jays sure are getting media attention south of the border.

Is it April 2 yet?

Whoops

Well, I did it again.  After a posting which promised a bald head in the coming days if a Cliff Lee trade were to be consummated (which quickly became my second most widely read posting on this site by far) I went missing again.  For what I believe to be my longest absence to date.  Were it not for a post written by Andrew in late August this site would have been completely dormant for over three months.

Not a word on the disaster which was the second half for the Toronto Blue Jays, or the manager leaving town immediately following the season's end when his "dream job" came available.  Nothing about Canada's dominance of their qualifying pool for the World Baseball Classic.  No mention on the playoff race or on the World Series, of which I saw at least parts of every game. 

I leave myself wondering why I hold on to the hope that I will someday actually write on a regular basis about what I believe to be the greatest game we know.  Why don't I just give it up?  Admit that I'm not going to make time for it and let it go already.

When I started this blog, I had such high hopes for it.  After having my wife, some friends, and a radio host from a Toronto Sports Radio station all tell me I should start one.  I finally decided it was a good idea.  I had planned to cover not only the Blue Jays, but baseball in Canada as a whole.  On all levels.

Since starting the blog, I've traveled to Cincinnati to cover Joey Votto being presented with the Tip O'Neil award.  Wound up with my photo all over the internet.  However never got around to posting anything about it in a timely matter.  When I did have one written, it was weeks later and I wasn't happy with it.  I never bothered to put it up.  I've gone to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame the last two years to cover the induction ceremonies.  Then didn't write about it either time.

This summer I was fortunate enough visit five different ball parks, not counting spring training.  One of which was Wrigley Field, at a game where I was able to go down on to the field before the game.  I didn't share any of it.

Why?  Well, I could list lots of reasons,  come up with excuses.  No time.  Not following closely enough.  Can't remember what I wanted to say.  Didn't have a computer with me... etc. etc. etc. 

The real reason, honestly, is fear.  Fear of sounding like I don't have a clue what I'm talking about.  Fear of being wrong.  Fear of being criticized.  Fear that postings will sound like they were rushed, or written for the sake of writing something.

I don't express as much opinion as I should, or give my baseball intuition for fear of being wrong, or sounding cocky.  For example, I knew that the Giants would win game 1 of the World Series.  I came home and gave my wife several reasons why Detroit would lose game one, and why if gambling on single sporting events were legal, we should have been taking out a loan and betting it all.  I didn't write it down though, just in case I was wrong.  I wasn't.  The thing I was wrong about is that I thought it would at least be a close game.

So I've decided this is it for me.  My last kick at the can.  I'm giving this one more try and if I don't stick with it, I'll call it quits.

I'm taking a new approach though.  I'm going to start speaking my mind.  Making predictions.  Calling out General Managers or coaches.  Telling you what I think.  Inviting Criticism.  Writing only about things I want to write about, and leave the reporting to other people.

If it fails, it fails.  If you don't like it, tell me.  If you do like it, well, tell me that too.

I started this blog because I love baseball, and I love writing about it.  Just took me a while to remember.

So here goes nothing.  I hope you'll check out what pops up on here in the coming months.  I hope you'll like it too. 

Five Reasons to Still Watch the Jays in 2012

My fellow Blue Jays fans.

I’m sure most of you, like me, have been disappointed with the way this season has played out.

In April there was so much optimism surrounding the Blue Jays. It was easy to imagine that this team would challenge for a spot in the post season come September and October. Then the injury bug hit and destroyed any hopes the Jays had of making a run at the playoffs.

When you consider that Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Dustin McGowan, Sergio Santos, Jason Frasor, Luis Perez, Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind, and JP Arencibia have all seen significant time on the disabled list, it’s no wonder that the Jays find themselves below the .500 mark. All of these players were supposed to play significant roles for this team throughout the season. Their injuries have led to a number of young players being called up to the big club and bench players being asked to become starters and see significant time on the field.

 All of this has made it very difficult for me to watch the Jays play on a regular basis. I am embarrassed to admit that I haven’t watched an entire Jays’ game over the past 2 weeks. I’d tune in to find them behind and change the channel… figuring that the game’s outcome had already been decided.

With some time on my hands this afternoon, I took a look over the highlights and box scores from the Jays games over the past few weeks and there were 5 things I saw that will have me tuning into Jays games on a more regular basis the rest of the way.

1. The Young Ones

Moises Sierra has put up outstanding numbers thus far (.333 in 42 at bats). Granted this is based on a small sample size, but he looks very comfortable at the plate. Could he be the solution to the “perceived” hole the Jays have in left field? Is he the reason both Snider and Thames were dealt at the deadline for relief help? Either way, he’ll be fun to watch while he’s a member of the big club.

Anthony Gose is flat out fast. 9 stolen bases in 23 games is ridiculous… especially when you consider that he is sporting a .273 on base percentage. There is no question that his bat still needs work, but when he gets on base, he’s a sure threat to run.

Adeiny Hechavarria is a kid we’ve been hearing about for a couple of years now… especially when it comes to his glove. He’s played third base extremely well in the absence of Lawrie and it isn’t even his natural position. While Adeiny’s bat is also in need of some work (only 5 of 26 in 10 games), he’s made some outstanding plays in the field.

Aaron Loup has been a pleasant surprise coming out of the bullpen. He’s sporting a 2.50 ERA and 0.59 WHIP over 18 innings. He’s struck out 12 batters while only walking 1 and is holding opposing hitters to a .150 batting average. He is certainly giving John Farrell another consistent lefty to help
Darren Oliver get the tough lefties out late in games and his cross fire delivery makes it very difficult for lefties to pick up the baseball.

Given that the average age of these four players is 23, they represent the future and I certainly am curious to see what the future holds.


2. Power Surge 

What an outstanding year being put together by a player I would have been happy to see traded for a ham sandwich only 16 months ago. Now, Edwin Encarnacion’s chasing Adam Dunn and Josh Hamilton for the AL (and MLB) lead in homeruns. (34 to 31)

This has been a career year for Edwin who has already reached career highs in HRs (31), RBIs (82), and total bases (238) and is only 1 walk and 9 runs scored from setting career highs in those categories as well. He is the runaway favourite for team MVP in my opinion. He has been a solid hitter for the entire year and has proven to be a threat to go deep in every at bat. I think it would be great to see a Blue Jay lead the league in home runs for a third year in a row… and I plan on cheering him on the rest of the way.


3. League’s Top Thief

Two years ago, I was very energized to hear that Alex Anthopoulos had signed Rajai Davis. I thought we had finally found a leadoff hitter and consistent stolen base threat. My vision of that signing finally seems to be coming to fruition. With 38 stolen bases to this point in the season, Rajai is tied with rookie sensation Mike Trout. No Blue Jay has ever led the league in stolen bases and Rajai will certainly have a shot if he continues to get regular playing time between now and the end of the season.


4. The Return of Brandon Morrow

Brandon’s coming out party this year was a lot of fun to watch. After 13 starts, he was sporting an ERA of 3.01, a WHIP of 1.00, 67Ks in 77+ innings while issuing only 24 walks and seemed to be on the cusp of becoming a legitimate ace. Then, an oblique injury forced him to the disabled list on June 11th and we were left to consider what could have been.

He is close to returning to the Jays rotation and I am very excited to see him pick up where he has left off. His rehab starts have gone very well (4 starts, 1.72 ERA in 15+ innings and 14Ks) and he will receive a warm welcome back to the starting rotation. I’m sure his first start will come with a pitch count, but it will still be great to see him back with the big club.


5. The Future of our Current Rotation

Even with the struggles of both Ricky Romero and Henderson Alvarez, you would have to think that both of those guys will be in the starting rotation along with Brandon Morrow in 2013. But that cannot be said for the other three pitchers in the current starting rotation. Carlos Villanueva, Aaron Laffey and J.A. Happ have all displayed an ability to be a starting pitcher on a major league roster. However, Alex Anthopoulos has stated that he’s looking to upgrade the starting rotation this off season, meaning that each of these guys could be auditioning for a starting spot in 2013… it just may not be a spot in the Blue Jays rotation.

Since joining the rotation, Carlos has only given up 18 earned runs in 9 starts while striking out 54 and walking just 15. He’s stated that he wants to return to Toronto, but would prefer to be a starter rather
than a long reliever. If he continues pitching like this, I can’t see how Anthopoulos doesn’t give this guy a contract and an opportunity to be a starter in 2013 with Drabek and Hutchison both on the shelf. Does Villanueva continue to pitch well and give the GM something to think about?
When I first heard that Aaron Laffey was a Blue Jay, my first thought was, “Why? He’s no good!” And granted, he is not the best pitcher in the league, but he has been a serviceable starter. In his 10 starts, he’s pitched 58 innings with a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 4.97. He is arbitration eligible but I would think he is a long shot to return to the Blue Jays rotation. Does he present enough value that another team might become interested in his services?

J.A. Happ has been a pitcher I have rooted for since his great 2009 season in Philadelphia when he went 12-4 with a 2.93ERA. He has had three starts with Toronto since his trade from Houston and has gotten better with each start. His last start against Texas saw him pitch 6 innings, giving up only 1 run on 2 hits with 8 strikeouts. Happ is also arbitration eligible this off season and has stated his desire to be a starter. Do the Jays use him as a fifth starter? Does he become the long man in the bullpen?

There is no question that the Blue Jays will not be post season bound this year, but I’ve discovered there certainly are enough story lines to keep this Blue Jays fan interested until September? How about you?

Cliff Lee Isn't Going Anywhere!

It's that time of year again.  The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is fast approaching, and there have already been a number of trades consummated ahead of the deadline.  Among others, Detroit has added Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante.  Ontario Native, catcher George Kottaras is headed to the Oakland Athletics, who somehow have become one of the hottest teams in baseball.  The Anaheim Angels bringing in Zack Greinke to an already potent rotation.  The Pittsburgh Pirates showing they're ready to make a push by adding Wandy Rodriguez.  Ichiro is a Yankee.  The White Sox, not yet ready to roll over to the Tigers, added Francisco Liriano yesterday.  Last week the Dodgers brought over Hanley Ramirez to bring the total amount of hitters in their lineup to two....  Last but not least, the Blue Jays kicked things off in a sense with Houston in a ten player deal that brought in J.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon. 

The deadline is tomorrow, Tuesday July 31 at 4pm, and you can bet that there is still a lot of movement to come before then.

After missing out on Greinke, I suspect that the Texas Rangers will still make a hard push to add an arm.  Perhaps James Shields, Josh Beckett, or maybe even Josh Johnson if they can make Miami an offer they can't turn down.  Atlanta is also looking to add an arm after missing out on a deal that was in place last week to acquire Canadian Ryan Dempster from the Cubs.  The Dodgers are still looking to add one more arm, and improve their offense in any way they can. (Let's face it....  It wouldn't take much to improve that offense)  The Athletics still want to add a middle infielder and have been linked to the Jays in talks regarding Yunel Escobar.  Toronto in turn is apparently interested in Brett Anderson, but as we know, if we've heard about it, it's probably not true.  The Silent Assassin works only in the shadows....

The latest rumors surfacing today center around Canadian  Justin Morneau.  The Giants, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are apparently interested in adding the first baseman.  He would be a fit on any of these three teams.  The best fit would of course be the Dodgers, but Blue Jays fans can hope right?

One team in particular I expect to be active ahead of the deadline is the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies have performed well below expectations this year and after this weekend now find themselves 12.5 games out of a playoff spot.  They have pieces to move.  Shane Victorino is very likely going to be putting on a different shirt by the end of the week, as is Joe Blanton.  Both players are looking at becoming free agents following the 2012 campaign, and there is definitely a market for both of them.  Juan Pierre will likely be moved and Hunter Pence has become an interesting name as well.  He still has some time left on his deal, but despite this there are still some analysts around the industry who think there is a good chance that Philly will move him too.  There are a lot of teams who could use offensive outfielders right now.  (Again, I'm going to pick on the Dodgers.  Bobby Abreu is your starting LF?  Really?)

However There is one player in Philadelphia that I can tell you will definitely not move before tomorrow.  Despite numerous reports that the Phillies may be shopping him, I will tell you with great certainty, Cliff Lee is not going anywhere.  Frankly, I am sick and tired of hearing the Lee speculation.  There is no meat to this rumor.  At all.

Now, I get criticized for sometimes for not being opinionated enough on this blog, or sure of my self when I write.  Well, how is this for being opinionated and certain:  If Cliff Lee gets traded before tomorrow's non-waiver trade deadline, I will shave my head bald.  (and yes, I do still have a full head of hair, and will post pictures to prove it.)

Cliff Lee is absolutely not moving.

The Phillies have made it known that they still want to come into next season with Halladay, Lee and Hamels as their big three.  Now I realize that teams make this type of claim all of the time and then retract on it.  But this is different.  For some reason people have failed to remember why Lee signed in Philly in the first place, leaving a small fortune (to you and I anyway) on the table with the Yankees.  At the time of his free agency, Lee's son was in remission from Leukemia and Philadelphia apparently has the #1 children's hospital in the United States.  This was a huge factor in why Lee signed on for a second tour with the Phillies, and the reason I know that will keep him from approving a trade anywhere.  (Lee has a no-trade clause that allows him to submit a list of 21 teams the Phillies can not trade him to without his consent.)

Technically The Phillies can trade Lee to 8 teams whether they have his consent or not, but they won't.  When asked if he planned on keeping his expensive starting rotation in tact, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. responded by saying:  "Plans can change, but that's what the plan is right now." 


Plans won't change.  I'm betting the hair on my head that Lee will make his next scheduled start tomorrow night against Washington.  Three hours after the deadline has passed.


Who will move before tomorrow night?  Your guess is as good as mine.  I've given a few of my loose predictions on who will move before tomorrow.  Who do you think will be walking out of a new home clubhouse by the end of the week?  Please feel free to share your predictions in the comments section below.


Happy Trade Deadline!